Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 92195.100771 97220.390989 102241.761880 107632.280038 113251.795684 118933.840392 125109.861841
2025-07-06 83612.539329 91276.767383 99146.348630 107820.263892 117101.770533 126724.971557 137445.968724
2025-07-13 78586.615647 88158.913249 98199.132746 109493.674840 121823.222226 134851.908974 149637.899350
2025-07-20 74633.879199 85661.467532 97435.680282 110906.664435 125855.394735 141898.255025 160379.363661
2025-07-27 71058.188727 83219.812746 96409.367599 111723.839821 128961.523798 147708.877282 169583.406087
2025-08-03 67596.316492 80638.545262 94985.805879 111868.172114 131114.901437 152297.759179 177296.381948
2025-08-10 64733.106333 78542.759876 93933.514215 112265.064010 133407.014621 156926.371507 184966.326314
2025-08-17 62012.909256 76452.877118 92744.229505 112369.777523 135248.532317 160953.260051 191886.964814
2025-08-24 60242.668917 75365.212245 92618.534441 113618.409132 138338.439527 166360.747131 200368.037306
2025-08-31 57872.108275 73452.890925 91425.775949 113523.609822 139783.852499 169811.105587 206548.948297
2025-09-07 56559.713478 72737.484428 91586.482559 114974.142357 143005.315835 175307.427476 215116.532895
2025-09-14 55090.716309 71762.162757 91376.002088 115928.780065 145599.466992 180046.908756 222796.069516
2025-09-21 53234.744173 70264.899789 90501.521581 116063.793406 147214.108411 183654.013643 229194.705062
2025-09-28 51438.837040 68778.980792 89586.100447 116101.550079 148677.221133 187064.518376 235365.249002
2025-10-05 50611.614721 68466.516722 90080.089562 117841.253386 152195.555126 192943.054774 244522.378969
2025-10-12 49721.795280 68034.657850 90393.295113 119332.562446 155397.406112 198443.614178 253249.068820
2025-10-19 48590.394325 67250.424233 90228.697670 120197.891516 157807.610441 202977.781368 260816.723704
2025-10-26 47191.613890 66073.465669 89526.515291 120350.617504 159304.446282 206380.485940 267003.734264
2025-11-02 45989.535906 65111.943355 89061.948023 120771.715542 161113.309243 210155.946156 273654.122398
2025-11-09 44711.305012 64009.362102 88379.942666 120882.816318 162507.167859 213405.238539 279656.855408
2025-11-16 44024.194889 63665.690964 88656.732468 122207.799005 165430.952952 218562.017277 288050.737835
2025-11-23 42763.988676 62517.179278 87852.957307 122107.206917 166516.518436 221410.333406 293567.788970
2025-11-30 42244.614392 62349.447050 88318.631596 123646.255723 169700.835436 226904.762161 302429.109627